Matchups

For every investigator who has logged at least 5 games against a particular Ancient One, we compute the win rate, shrunk toward the global mean (59.8%). Best matchups (n ≥ 30) lead; worst follow.

Win rate by matchup

Color = win rate after Bayesian shrinkage. Hover a cell for n and the raw rate.

N= 96,488 HOW?

Investigator

Cthulhu

Yig

Shudde M'ell

Syzygy

Hastur

Atlach-Nacha

Nyarlathotep

Shub-Niggurath

Azathoth

Yog-Sothoth

Ithaqua

Nephren-Ka

Hypnos

Antediluvium

Abhoth

Rise of the Elder Things

Agatha

55%

61%

68%

66%

69%

72%

66%

83%

67%

75%

76%

72%

80%

78%

71%

88%

Luke

57%

76%

66%

61%

67%

68%

61%

73%

71%

68%

78%

72%

77%

71%

77%

Pete

63%

56%

67%

63%

65%

64%

70%

76%

72%

68%

72%

78%

62%

80%

78%

Sefina

56%

63%

59%

67%

52%

61%

67%

79%

77%

73%

74%

72%

78%

Bob

51%

59%

61%

73%

68%

63%

68%

67%

72%

70%

69%

75%

73%

79%

84%

Carson

39%

64%

67%

70%

65%

69%

72%

71%

73%

70%

78%

69%

82%

66%

Jenny

49%

66%

64%

65%

63%

66%

65%

71%

68%

72%

81%

67%

73%

79%

Roland

56%

48%

57%

60%

62%

59%

70%

77%

78%

71%

75%

74%

82%

68%

75%

80%

Daniela

60%

58%

63%

52%

63%

67%

64%

71%

74%

73%

70%

75%

69%

73%

76%

74%

Preston

56%

60%

67%

62%

64%

69%

63%

74%

70%

55%

73%

76%

70%

71%

76%

75%

Minh

54%

62%

65%

63%

69%

61%

65%

51%

68%

73%

70%

81%

78%

70%

82%

Mary

55%

57%

64%

72%

65%

72%

67%

62%

70%

55%

68%

72%

73%

78%

73%

76%

Daisy

54%

51%

64%

61%

57%

66%

75%

64%

68%

65%

69%

73%

77%

82%

75%

76%

Ursula

45%

51%

65%

61%

66%

64%

66%

62%

68%

67%

74%

75%

83%

73%

76%

78%

Jacqueline

51%

57%

65%

62%

71%

62%

59%

66%

70%

73%

76%

83%

76%

73%

Kate

49%

65%

62%

59%

56%

61%

79%

69%

74%

67%

72%

64%

70%

66%

72%

Rex

47%

61%

68%

62%

57%

67%

75%

67%

74%

51%

70%

71%

62%

75%

69%

78%

Gloria

53%

60%

52%

54%

63%

72%

67%

70%

67%

74%

65%

72%

68%

67%

62%

83%

Carolyn

56%

61%

63%

59%

66%

60%

71%

57%

77%

68%

70%

74%

62%

Charlie

51%

52%

58%

62%

68%

62%

61%

56%

67%

68%

69%

74%

81%

74%

78%

Wendy

55%

47%

59%

58%

62%

65%

63%

64%

63%

67%

80%

73%

69%

67%

69%

80%

Mateo

47%

54%

59%

60%

63%

57%

66%

73%

72%

67%

65%

71%

67%

72%

62%

83%

"Skids"

52%

56%

60%

58%

67%

61%

65%

66%

61%

67%

66%

79%

74%

70%

72%

Mandy

48%

47%

60%

59%

60%

68%

64%

70%

71%

63%

67%

69%

70%

69%

70%

Darrell

49%

59%

57%

55%

65%

63%

58%

64%

71%

60%

71%

65%

69%

75%

72%

Monterey

47%

60%

54%

61%

58%

55%

66%

51%

72%

66%

67%

72%

69%

77%

71%

63%

William

54%

48%

50%

52%

59%

60%

67%

70%

68%

62%

57%

72%

70%

76%

62%

81%

Marie

51%

50%

55%

56%

72%

53%

65%

61%

70%

68%

64%

70%

68%

59%

70%

73%

Dexter

45%

49%

51%

62%

58%

63%

53%

65%

67%

64%

68%

75%

71%

68%

73%

72%

Rita

48%

50%

58%

64%

56%

57%

69%

71%

70%

65%

66%

67%

55%

76%

78%

Calvin

50%

53%

49%

60%

78%

64%

58%

60%

65%

62%

69%

68%

73%

62%

70%

58%

Patrice

47%

51%

59%

50%

52%

64%

57%

61%

63%

65%

69%

76%

74%

73%

Michael

34%

51%

63%

55%

59%

68%

58%

61%

67%

60%

58%

67%

76%

69%

70%

79%

George

49%

45%

60%

56%

58%

65%

58%

64%

61%

67%

62%

69%

67%

64%

73%

Vincent

38%

57%

65%

62%

55%

59%

53%

64%

68%

55%

60%

71%

74%

70%

66%

70%

Amanda

40%

51%

60%

57%

56%

63%

75%

67%

64%

57%

68%

64%

60%

68%

70%

Harvey

37%

53%

52%

50%

57%

62%

58%

69%

59%

68%

65%

70%

69%

Agnes

44%

50%

56%

54%

65%

63%

55%

58%

63%

68%

66%

68%

65%

72%

75%

Lola

44%

43%

58%

56%

63%

59%

64%

53%

48%

60%

64%

69%

80%

68%

72%

Zoey

44%

53%

51%

54%

63%

59%

52%

61%

57%

62%

67%

71%

63%

71%

73%

Diana

43%

44%

49%

60%

54%

60%

71%

52%

49%

63%

62%

70%

65%

71%

72%

73%

Joe

49%

47%

50%

56%

51%

54%

60%

56%

60%

63%

67%

63%

78%

62%

65%

70%

Tommy

42%

49%

56%

57%

66%

51%

56%

58%

62%

66%

57%

66%

62%

61%

63%

75%

Lily

44%

47%

51%

58%

57%

60%

53%

54%

49%

61%

62%

69%

70%

74%

67%

71%

Akachi

41%

39%

59%

58%

54%

63%

64%

52%

49%

60%

59%

69%

68%

71%

69%

68%

Jim

43%

45%

53%

54%

55%

59%

65%

56%

47%

65%

66%

55%

71%

70%

68%

65%

Norman

43%

45%

56%

55%

56%

55%

58%

51%

61%

63%

55%

58%

82%

66%

70%

Leo

40%

42%

48%

59%

64%

47%

66%

51%

50%

56%

61%

64%

63%

72%

70%

Hank

48%

47%

51%

48%

54%

51%

62%

64%

56%

52%

67%

63%

59%

66%

69%

64%

Wilson

47%

43%

48%

52%

59%

50%

61%

56%

61%

67%

55%

75%

66%

71%

Silas

48%

42%

55%

53%

63%

51%

56%

53%

47%

55%

64%

60%

67%

76%

64%

63%

Trish

44%

41%

52%

55%

53%

48%

60%

54%

53%

57%

61%

68%

59%

64%

74%

Tony

43%

50%

44%

50%

58%

57%

48%

60%

64%

62%

56%

51%

69%

62%

64%

66%

Mark

41%

38%

51%

52%

57%

56%

61%

49%

44%

50%

53%

61%

68%

73%

68%

Finn

36%

47%

50%

62%

49%

39%

56%

59%

56%

64%

61%

57%

55%

64%

59%

69%

Hover a row below to spotlight that matchup in the heatmap above; click to pin.

Best matchups (n ≥ 30)

N= 317

Agatha vs Rise of the Elder Things87.9% (48 games)
Bob vs Rise of the Elder Things83.6% (51 games)
Jacqueline vs Antediluvium83.3% (86 games)
Agatha vs Shub-Niggurath83.3% (44 games)
Ursula vs Hypnos82.6% (88 games)

Worst matchups (n ≥ 30)

N= 562

Michael vs Cthulhu33.8% (55 games)
Finn vs Cthulhu36.2% (106 games)
Harvey vs Cthulhu37.5% (62 games)
Mark vs Yig37.9% (307 games)
Vincent vs Cthulhu38.0% (32 games)

The cost of a matchup

A 60% win rate against Cthulhu feels different from a 60% win rate against Yig if one of them leaves the table littered with corpses. Win rate alone misses the bodies.

Empty chairs by Ancient One

Each bubble is one Ancient One. X = win rate. Y = average investigators lost (defeated or devoured) per team member. Bottom-right is the dream: you win, and everyone goes home. Top-left is the nightmare: you lose, and you lose everyone.

N= 21,132

Modifiers: preludes that flip a matchup

Picking the right prelude can swing a matchup by more than picking the right investigator. Each cell shows how the win rate against a given Ancient One changes when a particular prelude is in play vs. when it isn't.

Prelude × Ancient One swing

Difference in win rate, with prelude minus without, for every (prelude, AO) pair with enough games on both sides. Green cells = this prelude makes that matchup easier; red cells = it makes it harder. Showing the 30 preludes with the biggest total swing across matchups; sparse cells are dimmed.

N= 9,306

Prelude

Abhoth

Antediluvium

Atlach-Nacha

Azathoth

Cthulhu

Hastur

Hypnos

Ithaqua

Nephren-Ka

Nyarlathotep

Wondrous Curios

15%

-18%

-42%

28%

-9%

42%

-3%

10%

Epidemic

-6%

—

-48%

28%

-6%

-58%

20%

-7%

-12%

-41%

Twin Blasphemies of the Black Goat

29%

-5%

-26%

-4%

18%

-16%

-31%

-38%

The Archives

29%

-6%

38%

13%

42%

30%

35%

-3%

The Price of Prestige

11%

24%

21%

17%

33%

22%

-7%

19%

30%

-13%

Sins of the Past

-25%

-51%

-5%

43%

10%

30%

-15%

-13%

—

Dark Blessings

-26%

-25%

25%

-18%

30%

12%

42%

Unto the Breach

13%

-15%

-26%

30%

16%

-37%

Unwilling Sacrifice

16%

-26%

25%

27%

-1%

12%

-0%

21%

14%

17%

Lurker Among Us

-7%

-14%

-26%

17%

-32%

13%

-10%

25%

26%

Focused Training

18%

24%

-4%

25%

10%

—

Drastic Measures

-16%

-10%

38%

-19%

-18%

20%

-19%

-12%

17%

Harbinger of the Outer Gods

-22%

34%

27%

—

10%

-45%

-3%

Father of Serpents

—

-19%

-16%

-42%

-18%

16%

-31%

13%

-15%

Litany of Secrets

-4%

-26%

23%

25%

-3%

-16%

42%

The Stars Align

34%

20%

19%

18%

24%

-2%

Partnerships that change the matchup

Some investigator pairs win more often together than either of them does apart. Below: the pairs whose joint win rate most beats (or trails) their solo win rates. Anything to the right of the dashed 1.00× line means the pair is greater than the sum of its parts.

Pairs that lift each other

Top synergy pairs (n ≥ 20 shared games). Lift = win rate together divided by win rate apart. Whiskers are 95% confidence intervals — green whiskers mean the lift is clearly above 1×.

N= 409

Pair

Lift

95% CI

Carolyn + Silas

1.40×

[1.18, 1.64]

Lola + Mateo

1.40×

[1.19, 1.63]

Amanda + Lola

1.39×

[1.12, 1.68]

Agatha + Silas

1.38×

[1.20, 1.57]

Carson + Lola

1.35×

[1.07, 1.64]

Carson + Jacqueline

1.35×

[1.18, 1.50]

Norman + Preston

1.34×

[1.12, 1.56]

Jacqueline + Preston

1.33×

[1.19, 1.48]

Pairs that drag each other down

Bottom synergy pairs (n ≥ 20 shared games). Red whiskers mean these two investigators win less together than they do separately — possibly fighting for the same items or covering the same ground.

N= 421

Pair

Lift

95% CI

Carson + Finn

0.50×

[0.21, 0.81]

Calvin + Michael

0.57×

[0.29, 0.86]

Calvin + Dexter

0.58×

[0.37, 0.80]

Hank + Tony

0.58×

[0.42, 0.75]

Finn + Tony

0.61×

[0.44, 0.78]

100

Finn + Gloria

0.64×

[0.40, 0.90]

Calvin + Darrell

0.67×

[0.39, 0.97]

Darrell + Mandy

0.67×

[0.44, 0.90]